HIGHS & LOWS
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FOR LAND AND OCEAN
Temperature
anomalies for land and ocean are analyzed separately and then merged to form
the global analysis. For more information, please visit NCDC's Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.
SEPTEMBER 2015 HIGHEST SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURE IN 136-YEAR PERIOD
The combined average temperature over global land
and ocean surfaces for September 2015 was the highest for September in the
136-year period of record, at 0.90°C (1.62°F) above the 20th century
average of 15.0°C (59.0°F), surpassing the previous record set last year in
2014 by 0.12°C (0.19°F). This marks the fifth consecutive month a monthly high
temperature record has been set and is the highest departure from average for
any month among all 1629 months in the record that began in January 1880. The
September temperature is currently increasing at an average rate of 0.06°C
(0.11°F) per decade.
Separately, the September average temperature
across global land surfaces was 1.16°C (2.09°F) above the 20th
century average, also the highest for September on record. Large regions of
Earth's land surfaces were much warmer than average, according to the Land
& Ocean Temperature Percentiles map above. Record warmth was observed across
northeastern Africa stretching into the Middle East, part of southeastern Asia,
most of the northern half of South America, and parts of central and eastern
North America. Southern South America, far western Canada, Alaska, and a swath
across central Asia were cooler or much cooler than average.
STRONG EL NIÑO
CONDITIONS IN PLACE
With strong El Niño conditions in place, the
September global sea surface temperature was 0.81°C (1.46°F) above the 20th
century average of 16.2°C (61.1°F), the highest departure for September on
record, beating the previous record set last year by 0.07°C (0.13°F). This
departure from average is also 0.25°C (0.45°F) higher than the global ocean
temperature for September 1997, when the last strong El Niño occurred.
SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SEPTEMBER 2015 WELL ABOVE 1981–2010
Sea surface temperatures during September 2015 were
well above the 1981–2010 average in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean,
according to analysis by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC). Record warm
and much warmer than average temperatures are notable across the entire area,
as shown by the September Temperature Percentiles map above.
95 PERCENT
CHANCE EL NIÑO ONLY WEAKEN IN SPRING 2016
There is about a 95 percent chance that El Niño
will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015/16, gradually
weakening through spring 2016. This forecast focuses on the ocean surface
temperatures between 5°N and 5°S latitude and 170°W to 120°W longitude, called
the Niño 3.4 region.
Other areas across the world's ocean surfaces also
experienced record warmth or much warmer-than-average conditions for September,
including the entire Indian Ocean, most of the central Atlantic and part of the
South Atlantic, and the Greenland, Norwegian, and Barents Seas in the Arctic. A
large patch in the Atlantic Ocean south of Greenland remained much cooler than
average. Waters in the northwestern Pacific and
around the southern tip of South America were also cooler than average, with a
small region near Antarctica record cold.
PRECIPITATION
Precipitation anomalies during September 2015
varied significantly around the world.
·
Rainfall across Australia was the third lowest for
September in the 116-year period of record, at 6.2 mm, which is 37 percent of
average precipitation. Rainfall in all states and territories was below
average. The Murray-Darling Basin and the states of Western Australia,
Tasmania, and Victoria each experienced one of their ten driest Septembers on
record. El Niño is usually associated with below-average spring rainfall over eastern
Australia. As noted above, a strong El Niño is currently in place.
·
The Southwest Monsoon continued its
withdrawal from India at the end of September. Rainfall for the seasonal period
June 1st to September 30th was 86 percent of the
1951–2000 average. About half of India received normal rainfall, while the
other half received deficient rainfall (less than 80 percent of average).
SOUTH AFRICA
“Drought in South Africa has
affected 173 of the 1 628 water supply schemes nationally, serving about 2.7
million households” - Africa Green Media
SOUTH AFRICA -
UNISA MEETING - MARCH 4TH, 2015
“We warn people
to save energy, and it should be the same for water. It comes back to education
– when you save water, you save energy, and when you save energy, you save
water.” - Eskom’s Gerard Gericke
South
Africa is in the throes of an acute water sector skills shortage that is
already threatening water quality in parts of the country.
“The skills
shortage in the water sector is a very serious problem and it is not a future
or potential problem; we have it already,” said Dr Chris Herold, SAICE
Vice-President, during a panel discussion, 3 March, at Unisa’s Science Campus
in Johannesburg.
SKILLS LOSSES
EVEN HIGHER THAN PROJECTED
In 2008, based on 2007
figures, only 38% of the department’s engineering positions were occupied;
furthermore, forecasts projected that it would lose 42% of its senior engineers
over the 10 years to 2017. “Only two or three years later, the Department of
Water Affairs had already lost more than 42% of its senior engineers.”
The shortage of technical
skills affects everything from the department’s ability to issue and adjudicate
tenders to its capacity to make sound technical decisions on water
infrastructure and management.
Exacerbating the skills crisis
in government is the lack of candidate engineers coming up through the ranks of
the Department of Water Affairs, Herold said. In 2008, again based on 2007
figures, only six out of 45 posts for candidate engineers were filled. On the
positive side, the DWS Candidate Academy is doing a great job to nurture young
graduates to the stage where they can attain professional registration,
although these efforts are hampered by a lack of mentors within the
organisation.
IMPACT OF SKILLS
ON POWER, WATER
Eskom’s Gerard Gericke, the
third panellist, dealt with the relationship between water and energy
production, also known as the ‘energy-water nexus’.
“If there is no electricity,
you cannot produce drinking water or treat sewage. We’ve already seen water
treatment plants come to a standstill because of power outages,” he said,
referring to recent water problems in the West Rand and Limpopo.
IN SOUTH AFRICA,
95% OF ELECTRICITY COMES FROM COAL-FIRED POWER STATIONS
By the same token, electricity
production is dependent on water, particularly in coal-fired power plants,
which use water for steam production, cooling and various other processes. In
South Africa, 95% of electricity comes from coal-fired power stations, compared
to 80% to 90% in the rest of the world, according to Gericke.
REFERENCES
Peterson, T.C. and R.S. Vose,
1997: An Overview of the Global Historical Climatology
Network Database. Bull. Amer.
Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2837-2849.
Huang, B., V.F. Banzon, E.
Freeman, J. Lawrimore, W. Liu, T.C. Peterson, T.M. Smith, P.W. Thorne, S.D.
Woodruff, and H-M. Zhang, 2015: Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature
Version 4 (ERSST.v4). Part I: Upgrades and Intercomparisons.
J. Climate, 28, 911-930.
CITING THIS
REPORT
NOAA
National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Global
Analysis for September 2015, published online October 2015, retrieved on
November 8, 2015 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201509
